成品油价格波动对我国行业成本的影响路径

摘要

Through structural path decomposition model of macro-economic production chains, this paper analyses the direct and indirect multiplier effects with the oil-price shock on industrial cost, and then find the specific transmission path. The empirical results show that industries with high oil consumption like traffic transportation, chemical industry, electric power industry, are influenced more directly. And they are also the most essential industries in the oil-price shocks conduction. Then, the paper provides some policy proposals for oil price adjustment.%本文应用宏观经济产业链结构化路径分解模型,深入剖析了成品油价格波动,对各行业生产成本的直接和间接影响,及其乘数效应的具体传导路径.研究表明,交通运输、化工、电力等高耗油部门,受成品油价格波动直接影响较大,且为成品油价格波动影响传导的两个重要中间结点产业.最后,提出了合理调整成品油价格的相关政策建议.