动态等维新息模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用

摘要

Load forecasting is the mainstay of selection of the power system planning substation and the main transformer capacity in power plant, especially for medium and long term load forecasting. Taking the power supply load of certain city for example, this paper established a dynamic new information model with equal dimension, combined original data with predicted data and used a regression model to get the model prediction equation, carrying out comparison of the relative error and model accuracy class from model prediction results. The results show that the combination of the dynamic new information model with equal dimension could make medium and long term power load forecasting results be more close to the actual load value.%负荷预测是选取电力系统规划变电站及发电厂主变压器容量的主要依据，以实际某市供电负荷为例，建立起动态等维新息模型，把原始数据和预测的数据进行组合，利用回归模型，得到模型的预测方程，并从模型预测结果的相对误差和模型精度等级进行对比，说明结合动态等维新息模型，能使中长期电力负荷预测结果更靠近实际负荷值。