基于层次分析法的大型电力变压器风险评估技术研究

摘要

The paper proposed a new kind of assessment approach based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A set of assessment index quantiifcation system was established considering this device status, device importance, load factor and operating environmental factors. The AHP was used to evaluate equipment risk decision fusion to obtain transformer risk indicator. According to the risk indicator, the equipment risk was sorted to arrange equipment overhaul reasonably to raise the efifciency of condition based maintenance. Taking two 500kV power transformers in certain area for example, this paper veriifes the proposed model. The risk assessment result is conformed to practical conditions, which proves the feasibility of this method.%提出一种基于层次分析法的变压器风险评估新方法，结合设备状态、设备重要度、负荷系数及运行环境因素，建立了一套综合描述变压器安全运行的风险评估指标量化体系。利用层次分析法进行设备风险决策级融合，得出变压器风险指标，利用风险指标的大小进行设备风险的排序，来合理安排设备检修，提高状态检修效率。以某地区两台500 kV电力变压器为例对所提模型进行验证，风险评估结果和实际相符，证明了该方法的可行性。