西部大开发第二个十年四川省电力需求预测

摘要

As an underdeveloped province in the west, Sichuan is now confronted with the dual task of speeding up and improving the quality of economic development. Entering the 2nd decade of the China's Western Development Program, the economic development and power demand of Sichuan province will maintain at a fairly high growth rate. Using the Relative Unit Consumption Method, the paper analyzes the major factors influencing the electrical loads such as the economic growth rate, the proportion of three industries and the energy consumption for unit GDP production. On this basis, Sichuan's electric demands in 2015 and 2020 are forecasted and valuable conclusions are reached.%四川作为西部欠发达省份,面临着加快经济发展速度和提高发展质量的双重任务.随着西部大开发进入第二个10年,预计四川省社会经济发展和需电量仍将保持较快的增长速度.采用相对产值单耗法,对四川“十二五”、“十三五”经济增长速度、产业比重和产值单耗等影响电量需求的主要因素进行分析,对2015、2020年四川省电力需求进行了测算,得出了具有参考价值的结论.