基于LCOE的分布式光伏发电并网效益分析

摘要

为供应低碳可靠的电能,分布式光伏发电并网发展具有显著意义.结合核证减排单位收入因子,改进度电成本模型,并对度电成本的影响因素作敏感性分析;分析了包括贷款行为等激励机制对项目经济效益的影响;基于独立发电商和配电公司角度,通过实例全面分析了典型运营模式下的并网发电效益.结果表明,分布式光伏发电给配电公司同时带来负向收益和正向收益,自发自用模式能为独立投资商带来更高收益;发电量的变化对度电成本影响最大,在考虑核证减排单位(CERs)收入后,有效光照小时数和光伏组件衰减率对平准化电力成本(LCOE)的影响在增大;碳排放效益对项目的经济效益有一定的影响,碳交易市场的完善和有效的激励机制将推动光伏产业的发展.%In order to provide reliable,low-carbon power,the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation is of great significance.This paper firstly improves the cost-of-use model by combining the factors of certificated emission reductions (CERs),and then analyzes the sensitivity of influencing factors of electricity cost and the impact of incentives such as loan methods on the economic efficiency of the project.Finally,through a case study,a comprehensive analysis is made on the economic benefits of gridconnected power generation under the typical operating modes based on the independent power producers and distribution companies.The results show that the distributed PV power generation brings both negative and positive returns to the distribution companies,while the spontaneous self-use model can bring more benefits to the independent investors.The change of the generating capacity has the biggest impact on the electricity cost.After considering the income of CERs,the effect of effective light hours and the decay rate of PV modules on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) increases.The carbon emission benefit has certain influence on the project economic benefit.The improvement of carbon trading market and effective incentive mechanism will promote the development of photovoltaic industry.