Attaining Grid Parity: LCOE Analysis for Grid-Connected PV Systems of Utility Scale across Selected ASEAN Countries

摘要

Historically, ASEAN countries are dependent on conventional energy resources due to their abundance, which in turn explains renewable energy’s slow progress. With the existing government plans, various reports predict that only 17% renewable energy share can be achieved by 2025. Geothermal, Hydro and Bioenergy being limited to regional availability and with the declining cost of Solar PV, it is important to predict future Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for Solar PV systems in this region. Hence, unlike earlier research articles this paper focuses on evaluating Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for PV (equal 1 MW) technology across selected five ASEAN member states, i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Philippines till 2040 while considering capital cost of sub-system components within a typical PV system, i.e. PV module, Inverter, Mounting Structure and Balance of System (BoS) distinctly to generate unique Learning Curves (LCs) for individual countries. Sensitivity analysis was conducted with regard to discount rate, solar irradiation and CAPEX to identify impact on LCOE values and attainment of grid parity.