基于层次分析法和熵权法的电网风险评估

摘要

Some indicators of large-scale electric power networks have significant impact on the large-scale black-outs and chain collapse of a power system. In order to find the lines that will have a huge impact on the whole net-work after a fault switching-off, and prevent large-scale blackouts, this paper proposes and establishes an objective and rational safety evaluation system for distribution networks, in which the analytic hierarchy process ( AHP) and entropy weight method are used to conduct an objectively and subjectively risk assessment of a distribution network, quantify vulnerable lines from a quantitative point of view, and provide information for decision making to prevent cascading trips and large-scale blackouts. The proposed method is verified in IEEE39 node system.%大规模电力网络中，某些指标对电力系统大规模停电和连锁崩溃的发生有着重要的影响。为了寻找因故障开断后将会对全网造成巨大影响的线路，从而达到预防大规模停电的效果，建立了一套客观合理的配电网安全性评估体系，并运用层次分析法和熵权法相综合的主客观并重的评价方法对配电网进行风险评估，从定量的角度量化出较为脆弱的线路，为预防连锁跳闸和大规模停电提供决策信息。在IEEE39节点系统上对此方法予以验证。