电力规划执行偏差对非化石能源发展目标的影响

摘要

受近年国际形势变化和国内经济转型的影响，“十二五”期间能源行业发展态势波动明显，特别是电力行业，加之相关政策和规划不断调整，“十三五”期间实现“2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15％”目标的不确定性增大。为确保这一目标的实现，根据新形势下的变化构建了能源电力规划方案，基于规划方案重点提出了灵敏度分析和最大缺额分析2种方法，用以量化各类非化石能源的规划执行偏差对目标百分比的影响，并提出弥补方案。研究表明，水电、核电的开发进度及其消纳通道的建设情况，是影响目标百分比的主导因素；目标百分比能否达到15％，很大程度上取决于水电与核电是否能按规划完成开发利用；若2类电源的开发利用不足以达到规划目标，可以通过增加风电和太阳能发电予以弥补，但如果水电缺额达到58 GW以上，或者核电缺额达到27 GW以上，非化石能源“15％目标”几乎无法达成。加快建设川藏水电送出通道，有助于解决弃水问题，是实现非化石能源“15％目标”的有力保障。%In recent years, international situation changes and domestic economic restructuring lead to the fluctuation of energy industry development trend during the 12th five year, especially electric power industry. The relative policy and plan have been adjusted. Under these influences, the non￣fossil energy 15% objective which would be realized in 2020 during the 13th five year is uncertain. To ensure the realization of this objective, a new energy and electric power planning was provided according to the changes under the new situation. Based on the planning scheme, the sensitivity analysis and the maximum deviation analysis methods were proposed to quantify the influence of the implementation deviation of non￣fossil energy planning on the target percentage. And the according suggestions were also provided. The research shows that the main influence factors of the target percentage are the development progresses of hydropower and nuclear power, as well as their output channel construction. Whether the target percentage can reach 15% largely depends on whether the development of hydropower and nuclear power can be completed according to the planning. If the development and utilization of two types of power supplies are not enough to reach the planning objectives, wind power and solar power generation can be increased to remedy the vacancy. But if the vacancy of hydropower exceeds 0. 58 billion kw, or that of nuclear power exceeds 0. 27 billion kw, the ‘15% objective’ of non￣fossil energy can’t be achieved. Accelerating the construction of the Sichuan￣Tibet hydropower output channel can help to solve the problem of waste water, which is a strong guarantee for the‘15% objective’ realization of non￣fossil energy.