基于最小累积风险度的电网等风险检修决策

摘要

An equal risk maintenance decision model based on minimum cumulative risk is proposed from the perspective of risk balancing of power grid.The scheduled load loss caused by power grid maintenance and unscheduled load loss caused by faults are comprehensively taken as the risk measure criterion of power grid,and an equal risk maintenance model is built with the objective of nearly equal risk during each period of power grid maintenance period.The calculation methods of fault probability of power grid and load loss are proposed,the contribution of each equipment to be examined to power grid risk under current operation mode is determined by the risk tracing method,and thus the decision sequence of equipments to be examined is determined by large to small order.The heuristic method based on minimum cumulative risk is adopted to solve the model for determining the maintenance interval of each equipment.Case shows that the proposed model can realize the objective of risk balancing and obtain small total risk during the maintenance period.%从电网风险均衡角度出发,提出一种基于最小累积风险度的电网等风险检修决策模型.以电网检修引起的计划性失负荷量和故障引起的非计划性失负荷量的综合作为电网风险衡量标准,以电网风险在检修周期各时段接近相等为目标建立电网等风险检修模型;提出电网故障发生的概率及失负荷量的计算方法,并通过风险追踪方法确定电网当前运行方式下各待检修设备对电网风险的贡献程度,由大到小排序确定待检修设备决策序列;采用基于最小累积风险度的启发式方法求解模型,依次确定各设备的检修时段.算例表明,所提模型不仅实现了电网风险均衡的目标,并且能使检修周期内的电网总风险较小.