基于服务贸易出口复杂度的算法，选取中国2000-2012年相关数据，分析金融发展对服务贸易出口结构的溢出效应。结果表明：短期内，金融发展对服务贸易出口结构没有影响，不存在溢出效应；长期内，金融发展能显著促进服务贸易出口结构的优化，但其溢出效应具有滞后性；金融发展对服务贸易出口结构存在单向因果关系，服务贸易出口结构不会影响金融发展。基于此，实现中国金融业发展对服务贸易出口结构长期可持续溢出效应，应完善金融体系，做大做强金融业；合理引导金融机构贷款投放，加大信贷支持；推进多层次资金市场，拓宽投融资渠道。%Based on the export sophistication of service trade and selected data in China during 2000-2012, this paper analyzes spillover effects of financial development on structure of export trade in services. The results show: In the short-run, financial development does not affect structure of export trade in services. In the long-run, financial development can promote the upgrading of export structure in services significantly, but the promotion is hysteretic. Financial development and export structure in services is unidirectional causality; export structure in services will not affect the development of finance. Based on this, the development of the financial industry to realize Chinese export structure of service trade long-term sustainable spillover effect, should improve the financial system, bigger and stronger financial industry; a reasonable guide financial institutions to increase loans, credit support; promote multi-level capital market, expand investment and financing channels.
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