The small-scale agriculture management system has been difficult to maintain due to the loss of labor force.The construction of new agricultural management system requires the farmland transfer in the expansion of farmers’business scale and substitution of labor.However,the land transfer is affected by various factors.The speed of the land transfer is still very slow in reality.Based on the data of 8 000 households,this paper applies Probit model to analyze the farmland transfer’s influence factor and uses IV-Probit and 2SLS methods to avoid endogeneity problem.The empirical results suggest as follows.First, the transfer probability is increased by the rising ratio of non-agricultural employment in farm family,but suffered by the negative effect of agriculture sideline business.Second,compared with the non-agricultural income level,the stability of the non-agricultural employment has a higher influence degree to the farmland transfer,which reveals that the operating behaviors of Chinese small holders’farms under the binary sepa-ration of urban and rural household system are different to the foreign farming enterprises’behaviors who purely pursue profits.At last,the pension and health insurance could relieve the farm family’s worries and reduce their dependence on the land as a means of social protection.However,the effect of whether have the city hukou is greater than the pension and health insurance.%大量的劳动力流失使得以家庭劳动力为主体的小规模农业经营体系已经难以维持。构建具有现代农业特点的新型农业经营体系需要通过土地流转来扩大农户的经营规模，实现机器对劳动的替代。然而，现实中土地流转受到各种因素的影响，流转速度仍然很缓慢。本文通过 Probit 模型对 CHIPS2008的8000户农户数据进行了分析，并采用 IV-Probit 和2SLS 方法来回避内生性问题。本文研究发现：第一，农户家庭中非农就业劳动力比例增大有助于提高农地流动的概率，但非农就业比对土地流转的正面作用会受到来自农业兼业化的负面影响。第二，与非农就业收入水平相比，非农就业稳定性对农地流转的影响程度更高，这揭示了城乡分隔体制下的中国小农经营与外国单纯追求利润的企业化农场经营行为方式是有差异的。第三，养老和医疗保险可以减少农民家庭的后顾之忧，降低他们对土地作为社会保障手段的依赖程度。但从具体数据分析结果来看，有无城市户口对农户土地流转的影响程度要比养老和医疗保险的因素更为显著。
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