汇率变动、对外贸易与经济增长--以湖南省为例

摘要

Since the exchange reform in July selected in 2005 to 2013 December quarterly data,through establishing simultaneous equation model,using 3SLS(three stage least two surplus method)measurement method of RMB exchange rate changes on the impact of Hunan province foreign trade,economic growth empirical research. The empirical results show that:the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation of 1%,to reduce the rate of economic growth of 0.612%;import and export volume of Hunan Province,the growth rate decreased by 2.79%,the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation has a tightening effect on Hunan province economy growth.%选取了2005年7月汇改以来至2013年12月的季度数据，通过建立联立方程模型，利用3SLS（三阶段最小二剩法）计量方法就人民币汇率的变动对湖南省对外贸易、经济增长的影响进行实证研究。实证结果表明：人民币实际有效汇率升值1%，经济增长速度降低0.612%；湖南省进出口额的增长速度降低2.79%，人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南省经济总量的增长有紧缩效应。