应用一元线性回归、五年滑动平均、距平分析和累积距平统计量与信噪比检验方法, 对研究区气温和降水进行研究, 结果表明: 65 a来, 吐鲁番市年平均气温以0.41 ℃·(10 a)-11的速率上升, 20世纪80年代以来升温速度加快,年平均最低气温增温幅度大于年平均最高气温增温幅度, 冬季与夏季的温差从 20世纪 80年代开始呈下降趋势;降水量有微弱减少的趋势, 递减率为0.48 mm·(10 a)-1;不同年代降水量的季节变化, 21世纪之前差异比较明显, 近十七年以来比较均匀.%Applying the methods of univariate linear regression, five-year moving average, anomaly analysis, cumulation anomaly statistic and signal-to-noise ratio test, the temperature and precipitation in the study area were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average temperature of Turpan increased at the rate of 0.41℃ ·(10 a)-1during the past 65 years, and the warming rate had accelerated since the 1980s;the increase rate of the annual average minimum temperature was greater than the annual average maximum temperature;the temperature difference between winter and summer decreased since the 1980s. There was a slight decrease in precipitation, with a decreasing rate of 0.48 mm·(10 a) -1. Seasonal changes of precipitation in different years were more obvious before the 21st century and more uniform in the past 17 years.
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