基于风险的安全性评估方法在石化电网中的应用

摘要

介绍了基于风险的安全性评估方法的基本原理以及如何建立事故概率模型和不同的后果模型,计算出电网的线路过负荷、变压器过负荷、失负荷和低电压风险指标。确定了风险评估的整个流程,结合石化电网三期项目的实例,说明了该方法的应用,找出了石化电网的薄弱环节。%This paper introduces the basic principle of security evaluation based on risk and the method to establish the accident probability model and different consequence models.Such risk indices as line overload,transformer overload,losing load and low voltage are calculated,and the risk assessment process is determined.In practice,this method has been applied to petrochemical power grid project 3,where some the weak points have been found out.