基于Geske复合实物期权模型的电网建设项目投资决策分析

摘要

With the development of power construction and market-oriented reform,there is much more uncertainty in the field of power grid investment.Traditional evaluation methodology has been impractical for the actual decision-making process.In combination with the phased characteristics of grid investment,this paper introduces the Geske compound real option model to the project investment decision-making.Considering the option selection interaction in the phase of project creation and expansion,the compound real option model is used to solve the uncertainty problems in investment decision-making.Finally,the applicability of the proposed model is illustrated by the calculation analysis of a new power grid investment project.%随着电力建设和市场化改革的不断发展,电网投资面临了越来越多的不确定性因素,传统的经济评价方法逐渐不能满足实际决策工作的需要。结合电网建设项目投资决策的阶段性特点,将Geske期权模型引入项目投资决策中,考虑电网建设项目新建和扩容两个阶段中期权选择的相互影响,阐述了运用复合期权模型解决投资决策中的不确定性问题,并通过一个新建电网投资项目的算例分析说明了该模型在电网建设项目中的适用性。