Decision Analysis and Validation of Value Focused Thinking Decision Models Using Multivariate Analysis Techniques

摘要

Decision Analysis (DA) is a useful tool to assist decision makers (DM) with difficult and complex decisions using mathematical models. Value Focused Thinking (VFT) models are a useful DA tool widely employed in the Air Force. However, VFT models are rarely validated. This research will attempt to validate any given VFT model and provide insight into the discriminating attributes of the alternative set. First, a two group discriminant analysis is applied the alternative set given the prior knowledge of the selected alternatives. Next, compromise programming is used attempt to minimize the distance between the posterior probability of an alternative being selected and its current weighted value by varying the weights. This set of optimized weights is then used in the two group discriminant analysis to classify the alternative set and attempt to validate the VFT model by selecting the same subset of alternatives chosen by the DM. Additionally, this process will provide insight into what attributes of a given alternative set are actually the discriminating factors in the decision which may or may not be the attributes that are most important to or most heavily weighted by the DM.