基于气温还原模型的地区电网年最大负荷预测方法研究

摘要

Air temperature has become an unignorable sensitive factor influencing the urban power grid load change, and should be taken into account in the annual peak load forecasting. Through correlation analysis among the historical data about regional power grid load and air temperature, this paper proposes an annual peak load forecasting method based on air temperature reduction model. The proposed method has been applied for load forecasting in a southern city in China, with high forecasting precision and good practical effect.%近年来气温已成为影响城市电网负荷变化的一个不可忽略的敏感因素，在地区电网的年最大负荷预测中有必要考虑其影响。基于对地区电网负荷和气温历史数据的关联分析，提出了一种应用气温还原模型的年最大负荷预测方法。该方法在南方某地区的负荷预测中得以应用，有效地提高了预测精度，取得了不错的实际效果。