综合风险评估综合度量了事件的可能性和严重性,可用以识别电网灾难性事件序列,但各严重性指标的权系数设置对评估结果有很大影响。为了克服传统综合风险评估中严重性权重设置存在人为主观因素的问题,提出用熵权法客观确定严重性指标权重。以严重性测度矩阵为基础,通过建立模糊隶属函数并结合熵权法确定各项严重性指标的权重系数,提出了基于熵权法的电网灾难性事件评估数学模型与方法。对WSCC-9节点系统进行仿真分析,证明所提方法正确、客观,有一定理论和工程应用价值。%The synthetic risk assessment, comprehensively measuring the severity as well as the possibility of fault events, can be used to identify the catastrophic event sequences in power grid; however, the coefficient setting of severity indices has great impact on the assessment results. To overcome the defect that the weight is setting up subjectively in conventional synthetic risk assessment methods, this paper introduces the entropy method to determine the weight coefficient objectively. Based on the severity measure matrix, the weight coefficient of each severity index is defined by the entropy weight method combined with fuzzy membership function, then proposing a catastrophic event assessment mathematical model and method based on entropy weight method. The simulation of the WSCC-9 buses system proved that the proposed method is correct and objective, providing with certain theoretical and practical value.
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