我国区域低碳经济发展能力差异分析

摘要

我国区域经济发展不同，能源消费碳排放各异，理性认识区域低碳经济发展能力差异是低碳政策制定的重要前提。文章运用偏离—份额分析Esteban模型，基于2006-2010年的数据对我国八大区域低碳经济发展能力差异进行实证分析，并结合方差的自然分解揭示各偏离分量对总偏离的贡献度。研究表明，我国八大区域低碳经济发展能力相对于全国平均水平的总偏离呈随时间扩大趋势，八大区域依据三个偏离分量可划分为四类，区域碳生产力纯竞争力差异对总差异的贡献度具有绝对优势。据此，文章提出了全面提升我国低碳经济发展能力的对策建议。%Regional economic development and carbon emissions are different in China.Rationally understand the regional dif⁃ference of Low-carbon economic development capability is an important prerequisite for Low-carbon policy making.Based on the Esteban model of shift-share analysis,the paper discusses low-carbon economic development capability among various re⁃gions in China during the period of 2006 to 2010,and reveals the deviation from the component’s contribution to the total devi⁃ation by natural variance decomposition. Results show that the deviation of the low-carbon economic development capability in eight major regions from the national average was expanding.Eight major regions can be grouped in 4 clusters according to three deviational components.The pure competition of carbon productivity difference factor predominates in the aggregate differ⁃ence accounting.Accordingly,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the overall economic development in low carbon ability.