上海城市生态足迹动态研究--基于ARIMA模型

摘要

The paper, by applying the ecological footprint model, calculates the ecological footprint per capita and the ecological carrying capacity per capita in Shanghai municipality for 14 years. The results show that the ecologi⁃cal footprint per capita presented an inverted U-shaped trend during the year of 1999 to 2012,the ecological carry⁃ing per capita capacity continuously declined and gradually inclined to be stable,but the ecological deficit per capi⁃ta still remained a high and stable level. Based on the results, the paper, using the ARIMA model, stimulates and analyzes the evolution of total ecological footprint per capital and its all components in Shanghai municipality for 14 years, and also predicts the development trend for the next five years. The prediction results indicate that the rapid transformation of the urban development makes the ecological condition in Shanghai municipality gradually improve. Based on the prediction,the paper carries out a comprehensive evaluation on the comparison of the situa⁃tion between Shanghai municipality and some provinces, and puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures to promote the ecological civilization construction in Shanghai municipality.%文章采用生态足迹模型对上海地区14年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行了测算，结果表明，1999-2012年间，上海人均生态足迹以2010年为转折点呈现倒U形发展态势，人均生态承载力持续下降并逐渐趋向平稳，人均生态赤字处于稳定水平但依然很高。以生态足迹模型计算结果为基础数据，采用ARIMA模型对14年间上海人均总生态足迹和各种土地类型的生态足迹演变进行了模拟和分析，并预测了未来5年内的变化趋势。预测结果表明，城市发展的快速转型使得上海地区生态状况逐渐好转。在预测基础上，将上海与部分省份的情况对比并进行了综合评价，提出了上海地区建设生态文明的建议和对策。