环境污染与经济增长、能源消费、FDI和城镇化的双向耦合关系

摘要

文章根据三大环境污染物排放分别建立环境污染物排放—经济增长—能源消费—外商直接投资—城镇化的PVAR模型，通过脉冲响应、方差分析和Granger因果检验分析比较五个变量的双向动态关系。结果表明：五变量的动态关系在碳排放中最为显著，且经济增长、能源消费和城镇化与污染物排放存在着显著的双向耦合关系；根据方差分析可知，除自身因素外，外商直接投资对碳排放和固体废物排放预测方差贡献度最大，城镇化对废水排放贡献最大。%The paper builds the PVAR model which comprises environmental pollutants emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, foreign direct investment, urbanization according to three major environmental pollutants emissions respectively. And we analyze and com⁃pare the two-way dynamic relationship among five variables by the impulse response, variance analysis and Granger causality test. The re⁃sults show that:The dynamic relationship among five variables is most significant in the carbon emissions, and the two-way coupling rela⁃tionship between environmental pollutants emissions and economic growth, energy consumption and urbanization is significant;In addi⁃tion to their own factors, the variance contribution of foreign direct investment on carbon emissions and solid waste emissions is the largest, and the urbanization contributes most to waste water discharge according to variance analysis.