新疆克孜尔水库地震危险性预测研究

摘要

After the Kizil Reservoir in Xinjiang Region stored water, the horizontal andvertical deformation appeared in the reservoir area. According to the references, the seismicrisk induced by the reservoir was studied by using multi-item deformation data. The resultshows: ① Active fault F2, crossing the reservoir area, deformed largely after the reservoir wasstored water. It is thought that the changing of the load on the ground caused the deforma-tion. ② Although there is potential factor inducing earthquakes in the Kizil reservoir area, thePrecent condition of the reservoir water storage, dam height, fault F2 occurrence, geologicaltectonic background, hydrogeological condition, and the property of rocks could not induce areservoir earthquake. ③ Because the crustal deformation now has recovered to normal statefrom the opposite anomaly in the period of construction and initial water storage, and everykind of force-affected factors have reached a new balance, the probability to induce a reser-voir earthquake is less in the future.%应用库区多项形变观测资料，对克孜尔水库蓄水后出现的形变异常及诱发水库地震的危险性进行了研究。结果认为：①穿过水库大坝的F2活断层在蓄水后出现水平和垂直形变的特大异常变化主要是前期水库施工开挖土石方、填筑土石方及水库蓄水引起地面负荷变化的综合效应所致；②克孜尔水库虽然存在诱发水库地震的潜在因素，但从库容、坝高、F2活断层产状、地质构造背景、水文地质条件、岩性以及世界各国发生水库诱发地震的成因、特点等多方面综合分析表明，克孜尔水库不具备发生水库诱发地震的充分条件；③由库区各项形变观测资料分析表明，库区地壳形变已由施工-蓄水初期时的反向异常变化恢复到了施工蓄水前的正常变化状态，各种受力因素经过调整达到了新的平衡，已进入相对稳定的继承性运动期，因此今后因蓄水诱发水库地震的可能性不大。