No.7欧洲配电网智能化发展中的规划技术

摘要

Main issues and challenges involved in the intelligent development of the European distribution networks are discussed.Firstly,the impact of energy policy on distribution network planning is analyzed.Secondly,the influence of the smart grid technology on long term load forecasting is discussed,including the influence of the user gateway and the behaviors of electricity customerson load and energy forecasting.Then,the various elements of the distribution network planningare analyzed,and the objective,cost,basic conditions,and boundary conditionsof planningare summarized,and a variety of tasks and the relationship among them in the process of the distribution network developmentare introduced. Meanwhile,the influence of new technologies(such as LVDC,energy storage,automation and cabling)on the planning are discussed,and the economic comparison method of the planning is illustrated through an energy storage case.Finally,the paper explains the impact of the new regulation mode of power supply reliability(regulating the long term blackout instead of the short term blackout)on the planning.It is emphasized that the strategies adapting to the distribution network development should be drew up to cope with the uncertainty of the policy,the load and the electrical technologydevelopment.China will face the same situationin the future development of active distribution networks.%探讨配电网智能化发展过程中规划涉及的各种要素及面临的挑战。首先分析了能源政策对电网规划的影响，其次分析了智能电网技术对长期负荷预测的影响，其中简要介绍了一种用户网关新技术，并分析了各种用电行为对负荷和电量预测的影响程度。接着分析了配电网规划的各种要素，归纳了规划的目标、费用、基础条件以及边界条件，并介绍了网络发展过程中的各种任务及其相互关系。同时介绍了新技术（如LVDC、储能、自动化、电缆化）对规划的影响，并用储能案例说明了规划的经济性比较方法。最后解释了新的供电可靠性监管方式（监管长期停电而不是监管短期停电）对规划所产生的影响。配电网智能化发展过程中的电网规划技术强调的是，电网规划本身也应该产生一个能够适应发展变化的计划，以便应对政策、负荷和电气技术发展的不确定性。中国在未来主动配电网规划建设中也需要面对同样的问题。