2018年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

摘要

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency which might occur in mainland of China or be imported from the outside of mainland China in January 2018.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or infectious diseases of January 2018 would be higher than January 2017,mainly caused by the increase of seasonal influenza,chickenpox,and mumps outbreaks among students,however,the outbreaks in school would go down quickly during the winter vocation.The activity of seasonal influenza would still on the rise,and peak in the late January and early February.There may be some sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza.Viral diarrhea outbreaks caused by norovirus and other enteroviruses would continue to occur.Severe air-pollution and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning are all in their high seasons.The risks of importation to mainland China of middle east respiratory syndrome from Saudi Arabia,diphtheria from Yemen and Bangladesh,and yellow fever from Nigeria are expected to be low.Conclusion It is expected that the public health emergencies in mainland China in January 2018 will rise.Particular concern should be paid to the seasonal influenza,human infection with avian influenza,and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning which might constitute public health emergencies.Close attention should be paid to viral diarrhea outbreaks and severe air-pollution.There is no concerned public health emergency outside the mainland China.%目的 评估2018年1月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险.方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估.结果 根据既往监测数据,预计2018年1月全国总体的突发公共卫生事件数和病例数将较2017年同期上升,主要由发生在学校的流行性感冒、水痘、流行性腮腺炎等传染病暴发事件上升所致;在学校放寒假之后,暴发事件数会快速回落.季节性流感活动水平将继续上升,在1月下旬和2月初达到高峰.我国内地可能将继续出现人感染H7N9及其他亚型禽流感或动物流感散发病例.诺如病毒等病毒性感染性腹泻暴发可能会继续发生.重污染天气和非职业性一氧化碳中毒均处于冬季高发季节.国际上,沙特阿拉伯的中东呼吸综合征、也门和孟加拉的白喉、尼日利亚的黄热病输入我国风险低.结论 预计2018年1月我国大陆发生的突发公共卫生事件数将有所上升;需重点关注季节性流感、人感染禽流感和非职业性一氧化碳中毒可能构成突发公共卫生事件的风险;一般关注病毒性腹泻病和重污染天气相关事件的风险.无特别需要关注的境外突发公共卫生事件.