Forecasting the Rainfall Pattern on Upstream of Hirakud Reservoir Using L-Moment for Accessing the Inflow

摘要

Changes in the rainfall pattern are a challenge for filling schedule of reservoir, when it is fulfilling various demands. In monsoon fed reservoirs, the target remains for attaining full reservoir capacity in order to meet various demands during non-monsoon period and the flood control. The planners always eye towards the inflow trend and perspective frequency of rainfall in order to counter the extreme events. In this study, the case of Hirakud reservoir of Mahanadi basin of India is considered as this reservoir meets various demands as well as controls devastating floods. The inflow trend has been detected by using Mann Kendall test. The frequency analysis of monthly rainfall is calculated using L-moment program for finalizing a regional distribution. The falling trend in inflow to reservoir is visualized in the month of July and August. The Wakeby distribution is found suitable for the monthly rainfall of July, September and October, where as in June and August, General Extreme Value (GEV), General Normal (GN) and Pearson Type-III (PT-III) distributions are found suitable. The regional growth factors for the 20, 40, 50 and 100-year return period rain-falls along with inflow to reservoir observed between 1958-2010 are calculated in this study as a referral for reservoir operation policy.