An Econometric Time Series GDP Model Analysis: Statistical Evidences and Investigations

摘要

This article aims to provide an analysis for a time series data of gross domestic product (GDP) of the Sudan. An econometric time series model with macroeconomic variables is conducted. Since a non-stationary time series must be made stationary, some statistical tests are followed so that the time series become stationary series. After applying these tests, the time series became stationary and integrated of order I. Box-Jenkins procedure is used to determine ARMA. OLS is used to estimate the models parameters. Performances chosen ARIMA model are verified on the basis of classical statistical tests and forecasting. The model features are interpreted on the basis of standard measures of forecasting performance.