快速更新循环数值预报系统在新疆的预报能力检验

摘要

对新疆快速更新循环数值预报系统2009年1、12月和2010年1、4、7、10月份的降水量和气温进行了检验，并与不做同化的预报结果进行了对比，得到以下结果：（1）降水孔评分北疆好于南疆，偏西好于偏东，其中北疆西部、北部、北疆沿天山一带、天山山区、南疆西部山区最好。漏报率的分布表现为北疆沿天山一带、天山山区较小，南疆、东疆较大。空报率的情况为：南疆、东疆普遍较高，北疆沿天山一带较低，其他地区居中。（2）典型个例检验发现降水落区预报有较好的参考价值，但大降水中心位置的预报能力不稳定，和田、巴州南部的空报现象比较突出。（3）温度预报准确率南疆、东疆总体偏低，北疆西部、北部较高，其他地区居中，个别山区站存在较大误差。（4）现行新疆快速更新循环数值预报系统的预报能力不比不采用同化高。%The forecasting ability of XJ-RUC and WRF for temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang during Jannary,April,July,October in 2010 was compared and verified. The result showed: (1)the rainfall forecast ability for Northern Xinjiang was better than that for Southern Xinjiang and that for Western Xinjiang better than that for Eastern Xinjiang,which for western and northern part of Northern Xinjiang,Tianshan Mountain area, along-Tianshan area were the best. The missing-forecast rate for Tianshan Mountain area and along-Tianshan area were smaller, eastern and southern of Xinjiang was greater,the false-forecast rate for the along-Tianshan area was smaller, but that for the eastern and southern part was greater; (2) verification of typical case showed RUC had a good significance for rainfall-area forecast, but forecast ability of heavy rainfall was not stable,Bayinguoleng and Hotan had frequent false-forecast; (3) the temperature forecast ability for Southern Xinjiang was lower,the west and north of Northern Xinjiang was greater, fewer mountain-stations had obvious biases;(4)XJ_RUC had not better forecast ability than WRF.