Project delay is still a common phenomenon in software development,which may affect seriously in software quality and cost, even result in project failure Risk control is thus essential for project schedule management. The paper analyzed the quantitative approaches for schedule risk analysis and management. It surveyed and compared the three typical models of software project management, including PERT/CPM, Critical Chain/Buffer Management, Event Chain Methodology. Among them,the Event Chain is a newly proposed model and risk analysis method from 2004. It introduces the event model into traditional models of activities, which captures the basic characteristics of risk occurrence and propagation. It represents a new viewpoint with a separated and dedicated risk model, and promotes a innovative approach for quantitative risk analysis.%软件项目超期仍然是业界的一个普遍现象,进度延期可能直接导致项目质量下降、费用超支甚至失败,因此项目执行过程中对于进度的风险控制至关重要.从定量分析的角度探讨项目进度管理的风险管理方法,并对3种主要的进度管理方法和模型--PERT/CPM方法、关键链方法、事件链方法--进行了调研和对比.其中,事件链是近年来新提出的一种针对风险事件进行建模和分析的方法,为进一步研究有效的进度风险管理控制方法和技术提供了新的思路和视角.
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