基于Agent的房价仿真研究

摘要

Analysis and prediction of real estate pricing is the focus and difficulty at present. The Agent-based modelling and simulation technology is able to construct a quite intact model for real estate pricing model. The real estate market and land market, as well as various related Agents such as the land provider, the developer, the buyer, the seller, and the investor, etc. are included in the model. By depicting the actions, decision making and interactions of these Agents, one can observe the results and phenomena emerged macroscopically from various environmental policies. In the model simulation, the impacts of the factors such as land supply, investment behaviour, interest rate, inflation rate, etc. on a variety of real estate pricing are studied and analysed. The simulation result well reflects and explains the status quo of the real estate pricing.%房价分析和预测是当前的热点和难点.基于Agent建模仿真技术,构建了较为完整的房价模型.模型包括房产市场和土地市场,以及房价相关各种主体,如土地供应者、开发商、买房者、投资者.通过刻画这些主体的行为、决策及交互,观察在不同的环境政策下,宏观涌现出来的结果和现象.模型仿真中研究和分析了土地供应、投资行为、利率、通胀等因素对房价走势的影响.仿真结果能较好地反映和解释房价的现实状况.