基于面板VAR模型的区域货币政策有效性实证研究

摘要

Based on Panel VAR model , this paper studies the effectiveness of regional monetary policy from two perspec -tives-the price effect and the output effect .Empirical results indicate that , in the price effect, the middle regional mo-netary has the most obvious effect on inflation , the western region is less , and the eastern region is the least;in the out-put effect, the eastern region has the largest effect, the middle region is less, and the western is the worst.Furthermore, all regions have one and half year time lag of response of inflation to monetary policy .Therefore , The central bank should not only take action to narrow gaps between different districts when making monetary policy to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policies , but also improve the prospective of monetary policy to strengthen predictability , pertinence and effec-tiveness of macro-control.%本文利用我国2000-2010年间的31个省级面板数据，通过面板向量自回归模型，从价格效应和产出效应维度对我国区域货币政策的有效性进行研究。实证结果表明：在价格效应方面，货币政策对中部通货膨胀的影响最大，西部其次，东部最弱；在产出效应方面，货币政策对东部经济增长的效应最大，中部其次，西部最弱。此外，三个区域的通货膨胀对货币政策的响应都具有1年半左右的时滞。因此，央行在制定货币政策时，不仅要根据不同区域的实际情况采取有针对性的可行措施缩小区域差异以提高统一货币政策的效力，而且要提高货币政策的前瞻性，增强调控的预见性、针对性和实效性。