汇率变动、增长差异对中国与东盟进出口贸易的影响

摘要

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations and differences in economic growth on trade have been a hotspot of academic explorations.The paper builds the fixed-coefficient model to analyze the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and differences in economic growth on China-ASEAN trade based on panel data from 2005 to 2013.The results show that, the exchange rate of RMB ( indirect quotation) has a significant positive correlation with the export of China to ASEAN, and has not obvious effects on the he import of China from ASEAN;the differences in economic growth shows an outstanding negative correlation with the export of China to ASEAN, and has an outstanding positive correlation with the import of China from ASEAN.%汇率变动、增长差异的贸易效应一直是学术界研究的焦点。本文以中国－东盟为研究对象，构建双边进口和出口贸易固定效应模型，并选取2005－2013年的面板数据，实证检验人民币汇率变动、国民收入增长差异对中国与东盟双边进出口贸易的影响。结果显示：人民币汇率（间接标价法）变动与中国向东盟出口呈显著的正相关关系，对中国从东盟进口影响不显著；增长差异与中国向东盟出口呈显著的负相关关系，与中国从东盟进口呈显著的正相关关系。