人口红利、贸易自由化与经济增长关系的实证研究

摘要

本文运用计量经济学模型分析了我国人口红利、贸易自由化及经济增长之间的相互作用机制，结果表明它们互为因果关系，其中人口红利的劳动力数量结构效应与经济增长之间存在U型关系，人口红利的劳资匹配效应及贸易自由化对经济增长的效应一直表现为正向促进。同时，研究还发现：劳动力数量结构效应是贸易自由化的格兰杰原因，即人口红利能够促进对外贸易水平进而推动经济增长；贸易自由化对经济增长的促进作用会随着贸易自由化水平的提高而有所减缓。%This paper analyzes the interaction mechanism among demographic dividend, trade liberalization and econom-ic growth by using econometrics model.The results show that the relationship among these three variables is causality. But there is U-shaped relationship between the structural effects of labor number and economic growth.And labor matc-hing bonus effect and trade liberalization have a positive effect on economic growth.Meanwhile, this study also finds structural effects of labor number is the Grainger reason of trade liberalization, that is, demographic dividend can promote the level of trade liberalization and promote economic growth; trade liberalization′s acceleration to economic growth will slow down with the raising of level of trade liberalization.