通过问卷调查,具体分析了吉林省敦化市乡村人群对气候变化趋势和极端冷暖年的感知偏差及人群分异.发现乡村人群对气候变化趋势的感知与科学事实比较符合,由于对变暖转折年代更敏感,因而对变暖的确认度在一些时段与科学事实在变化程度或幅度上存在比较大的偏差.乡村人群对极端冷暖年不如对趋势感知的准确度高.经验积累影响乡村人群对气候变化趋势感知准确度,成长经历影响乡村人群对极端冷暖年感知的准确度.建议政府对气候变化教育有专门投入,在应对气候趋势的变化和极端冷暖年变化方面,总结关键人群在粮食种植行为上取得的经验和教训,以教育方式为关键人群提供分享这些案例的机会,服务于提高乡村人群适应气候变化的能力建设目标.%This research investigated the perception deviation and population differences on climate trend as well as extreme cold/warm years through questionnaire survey among rural populations in Dunhua City, Jilin Province. The results indicate that the rural people's perception on climate trend agrees well with scientific measurements. Higher sensitivity to the transitional year of warming leads to greater deviation on the confirmation in warming years at some time intervals. The perception of climate trend is more accurate than that of extreme cold/warm years. The experience affects rural people's perception accuracy to climate trend, and the growth experience affects their perception accuracy to extreme cold/warm years. Therefore, the government needs to earmark funds to climate change education.The education should provide the concerned and key people the cases of people's experience and lessons on how to respond to climate trend and extreme climate year on the grain-growing around the cold and warm transitional year,to improve people's capacity to adapt to climate change.
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