人类活动影响下的北京地区气候承载力初步评估

摘要

Based on the current climate condition, the characteristic of environment and the intensity of human activities during the social and economic development in Beijing area, an evaluation index system of climatic carrying capacity was built in Beijing area. The climatic carrying capacity influenced by human activities was assessed, the spatial distribution of climatic carrying capacity and its elements were analyzed, the comparative carrying capacity of different districts/counties and the main restriction factors of carrying capacity were highlighted. The results suggest that the index of Beijing climatic carrying capacity in this research changes between 0.24 and 2.24, which is high in the districts of Yanqing county, Miyun county and Changping districts, but low in center six citys and Shunyi and Fangshan districts, and moderate in Haidian, Daxing, Huairou, Mentougou, Pinggu and Tongzhou districts. The spatial difference of climatic carrying capacity is small in Dongcheng, Xicheng, Fengtai, Shunyi and Chaoyang districts, but it is large in these suburb districts such as Yanqing county, Huairou district and Mentougou district, due to the differences of geographical characteristics and ecological environment primarily. As to the elements of climatic carrying capacity, Huairou district, Yanqing county, and Mentougou district mainly are restricted by climate resources; the main restriction factors of climatic carrying capacity in city/town area and Fangshan district are because of the intensity of human activities and ecological environment. In terms of specific indicators, the climatic carrying capacity in the city/town area is mainly caused by population density, greenbelt area and the production and living emissions. The main influence factor of climatic carrying capacity in the Shijingshan district is poor air quality, but in Fangshan district, besides poor air quality, higher energy consumption is another important factor.%重点考虑北京地区的气候条件、环境特点以及社会经济发展过程中的主要人类活动,从气候资源现状、人类活动强度和生态环境状态3个基本要素层出发,构建人类活动影响下的北京地区气候承载力评估指标体系,评估人类活动影响下的北京地区气候承载力情况,分析了气候承载力构成要素的空间分布及相对水平,解析了不同区县气候承载力的相对状况及主要制约因子.结果表明,北京地区气候承载力指数(ICCC)在0.24~2.24之间变化,其中延庆县、密云县、昌平区的气候承载力较高,东城区、西城区、顺义区、石景山区、丰台区、房山区、朝阳区的气候承载力相对较差,海淀区、大兴区、怀柔区、门头沟区、平谷区、通州区居中.在各行政区县内部,东城区、西城区、丰台区、顺义区、朝阳区的气候承载力空间差异性较小;而延庆县、怀柔区、门头沟区等郊区气候承载力空间差异性较大,这主要受气候条件和生态环境的区域差异性影响.从气候承载力的构成要素看,怀柔区、延庆县及门头沟区的气候承载力主要受气候资源的限制;城六区和房山区等地的气候承载力主要受人类活动强度及生态环境要素的限制.就气候承载力具体指标而言,东城区、西城区、海淀区、朝阳区主要受人口密度、人均绿地面积以及生产生活排污量的影响;石景山区主要受空气质量较差的影响,房山区则受空气质量差和人均能耗高的影响.