选取安徽省淮北平原37个气象站1960—2016年逐日气象资料,构建气温、降水、日照及气候适宜度模型,分析气候变暖背景下冬小麦气候适宜度时空演变特征,揭示冬小麦生育期气候风险,评判农业气候年景.结果表明:淮北平原冬小麦不同生育期对气候因子适宜程度不同,单要素各生育期适宜度均为灌浆-乳熟期较高,返青-拔节期较低,其中降水适宜度分蘖期最低;全生育期温度适宜度最高、日照适宜度次之、降水适宜度最低,水分是冬小麦生长的限制因子.气候综合适宜度灌浆-乳熟期最高,分蘖期降水适宜度最低,并且其序列变异系数大,常遭遇秋冬连旱,引起产量波动;全生育期气候适宜度呈东高西低分布,淮北中东部较高,而淮北西部及沿淮地区较低,冬小麦生产风险相对较高.1961—2016年全生育期温度适宜度线性增大趋势显著,降水适宜度线性趋势不明显,而日照适宜度呈显著的线性减小趋势;综合来看,全生育期气候适宜度无明显线性增减趋势,空间上淮北东部略有增大,而西部及沿淮地区略有减小,气候风险增加.淮北平原多数年份气候适宜度适中,适宜性偏差年发生概率高于偏好年.基于气候适宜度评判冬小麦气候年景等级,评估结果与实际产量增减情况基本相符,表明农业气候年景模型评估精度能满足业务服务需求,具有推广应用价值.%On the basis of ecological physiology characteristics of winter wheat and mathematical statistics method, the suitability function was constructed about temperature, precipitation and sunshine, respectively by using the 1960-2016 meteorological data from 37 stations in Huaibei Plain of Anhui province. In order to express the synergetic effect of meteorological factors and yields, winter wheat climate suitability modeling across the whole growth stage was established by combining the above single factor suitability function. On the other hand,agricultural climate annual assessment model was also established based on crop climatic suitability index. Results indicated that the suitability indexes in each growth stage of winter wheat were different. All single factor climatic suitability indexes were higher in the filling-milk stage, yet lower during the reviving?jointing stage. The lowest precipitation suitability appeared at the tillering stage. The temperature suitability of winter wheat in Huaibei plain of Anhui province kept higher level, following the sunshine, and precipitation became less suitable. Heat resource was abundant, and precipitation was the main limiting factor for the growth. The climatic suitability at the tillering stage was not only low, but also the variation coefficient was large, which indicated that Huaibei Plain was prone to autumn?winter successive drought, with the fluctuation of winter wheat yield. The distribution of winter wheat climate suitability in eastern areas was higher than that in northern areas, and planting risk were relatively high in western Huaibei and area along Huaihe River. The temperature suitability in the whole growth stage of winter wheat showed an significant increasing trend during 1961?2016, and the suitability index of precipitation showed a similar trend but not significantly, while the suitability index of sunshine showed an obvious downward trend.Due to the interaction between the three factors of temperature, precipitation and sunshine, the climate suitability index had not an obvious linear trend on the whole. From the spatial change of view, it increased slightly in the eastern Huaibei, while decreased slightly in the west and areas along the Huaihe River. From the view of probability density distribution, Huaibei Plain was in the middle of climate suitability level for most of the years,and the occurrence probability of the lower climatic suitability was greater than that of the higher one. In addition,winter wheat climate annual assessment was carried out based on the climate suitability classification, and the evaluation results and real grade of climate yield abundance were coincident. The accuracy of the assessment model can basically meet the needs of agro-meteorological operation and services.
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