岩爆预测的最大熵最优相对隶属度方法

摘要

通过分析国内外岩爆预测的判据,选择岩爆发生所需的力学条件、完整性条件、储能条件和脆性条件作为岩爆预测指标.引入岩爆预测的相对隶属度概念,计算了岩爆的相对隶属度模糊矩阵和预测指标的权重,以信息熵来描述并比较岩爆评价中的不确定性,定义了加权广义权距离来表征岩爆的差异.根据最大熵原理建立了岩爆预测的模糊最优化模型,对一些岩石地下工程实例进行了分析,预测结果与其他方法的分析结果以及实际情况基本一致.并将模型运用于葡萄山隧道岩爆预测,预测结果与实际岩爆情况符合较好.%In the analysis of rock burst criterion prediction at home and abroad, the prediction standards of rock burst are selected including the conditions of mechanics integrity, energy and brittle. The concept of relative membership degree on the rock burst prediction was introduced. The weight of standards and fuzzy matrix of relative membership degree are calculated. Uncertainty in rock burst prediction is described and compared according to the information entropy. Generalized weighted distance is also defined to characterize the differences in rock burst based on the maximum entropy principle, the establishment of a rock burst prediction fuzzy optimization model. The results from the application to practical example and comparisons with other methods are fairly good. Finally, the prediction model is applied in Putaoshan tunnel and the predictions are consistent with the actual rock burst.