前瞻性时空扫描分析在卫生应急指挥决策系统疾病预警模式中的应用研究

摘要

Objective To explore the feasibility of using the prospective space-time analysis and early warning in health emer-gency command system in Chongqing .Methods Prospective space-time scan analysis method was used for the early detection of disease outbreaks in mumps patients from 5 districts(Jiangbei ,Shapingba ,Dadukou ,Jiulongpo ,Nan′an ,) in Chongqing in 2006 ,then verified the aggregation using the actual reported mumps outbreaks .Results The results showed that 3 early warning signals at October 9th ,November 13th ,December 4th ,involving a total of 5 locations(streets/towns) .The strongest warning happened on Oc-tober 9th in Zengjia town of Shapingba district ,and Jingfeng town of Jiulongpo district ,the recurrence interval was 1 916 495 550 992 471 years .There were 2 mumps outbreaks have been reported in the surveyed areas .Both the the 2 outbreaks were detected by the prospective space-time scan statistic 5-6 days early than the actually occurred time .Conclusion The prospective space-time scan analysis method could be applied to the disease monitoring and early warning in health emergency command decision-making system in Chongqing .%目的：探讨在重庆市卫生应急指挥系统中使用前瞻性时空扫描分析预警模式的可行性。方法用前瞻性时空扫描分析的方法对2006年重庆市主城5个区（江北、沙坪坝、大渡口、九龙坡、南岸）报告的流行性腮腺炎病例进行模拟的实时监测预警，并用实际报告的流行性腮腺炎聚集性疫情进行验证。结果在10月9日、11月13日、12月4日发出了预警，共涉及有5个地点（街道/乡镇）。预警强度最强的是10月9日沙坪坝区曾家镇和九龙坡区金凤镇发出的预警，它们的再现集群时间间隔是1916495550992471年。对照报告的2起流行性腮腺炎疫情，均发生模拟预警地区，发出预警的时间比事件实际发生时间早5～6 d。结论前瞻性时空扫描分析可以应用于重庆市卫生应急指挥决策系统中疾病监测预警。