四种常绿乔木潜在及未来分布区模拟研究

摘要

基于《中国木本植物分布图集》和ArcGIS地理信息平台，通过ClimateChina模型提取2000s(1990-2009)、2020s(2010-2039)、2050s(2040-2069)三个时段的13个气候变量数据为主要气候信息源，采用最大熵法( Max-Ent)生态位模型对四种常绿乔木在中国范围的潜在适生分布区进行模拟预测，得出该四种乔木在2000s、2020s、2050s的分布变化。结果表明：MaxEnt生态位模型模拟的该四种常绿乔木潜在适生分布范围大于文献记载中的分布区域；影响该四种常绿乔木分布的主要气候变量并不完全一致；在未来气候变化下，该四种常绿乔木潜在适生分布区的变化趋势不同。研究结果可为植物适生区划、园林绿化树种引种栽培区的选择提供理论指导。%Based on the Atlas of Woody Plants in China and ArcGIS geographic information platform, u-sing ClimateChina model, extracted 13 climate variable data in 2000s(1990 -2009), 2020s(2010 -2039) and 2050s(2040-2069) as main climate information, simulated four evergreen trees suitable po-tential distributions and future distributions in nationwide use the maximum entropy method ( MaxEnt model) to gain distribution changes of these four trees in 2000s, 2020s, 2050s. The results suggested that the potential distributions of the four evergreen trees through MaxEnt model are larger than the distri-butions in literature; the main climate variables that influencing the distribution of the four evergreen trees are not entirely consistent. When climate changes in the future,the trends of changes in potential suitable distribution areas of the four kinds of evergreen trees will be different. The results can provide theoretical guidance for plant suitable zoning and planting area selections for landscape trees.