Potato Virus Y disease is widely spread all over the tobacco production areas in China. In the present study, the infected potato tuber was determined to be the main premary source of this disaese. The popular N strain could infect Nicotiana tobacum cv. Samsun NN, Burley tobacco, Nicotiana tabacum, Nicotiana glutinosa, Nicotianal rustica L, Physalis floridana, Capsicum annuum Linn and Lycopersicum csculentum after inoculation of twenty five species of plants. The main varieties in tobacco production are highly susceptable to this virus. Investigations showed that the tobacco near potato fields and apricot orchard diseased seriously, and the amount of aphids was an important factor causing PVY disease. We constructed the mathmatic model which revealed the relation between the disease degree and the population of wings aphids. Logistic { I=l/[l+a*EXP (-b*T) ]}was showed to be the best simulation model revealing the epidemic of PVY in Heilongjiang province and Logit (I) =2.058+0.355Logit (I0) -0.04SQRT (Ap) was the best field prediction model, the compare regression coefficient was 0.967, and compare regression absolutely coefficient was 0.935.%烟草马铃薯Y病毒病在全国各烟区普遍发生,经研究检测马铃薯带毒种薯是该病最主要的初侵染来源.马铃薯Y病毒N株系寄主范围在测试的25种植物中只侵染茄科的三生烟、白肋烟、黄苗榆烟、烤烟、心叶烟、黄花烟、洋酸浆、辣椒和番茄等.经研究表明,当前生产上主栽品种都高感PV-Y病毒,邻近马铃薯地和蚜虫越冬场所(杏树)的烟田发病重.蚜虫的发生量是影响PVY病毒病发生程度的重要因素.本研究构建了烟草马铃薯Y病毒病与有翅蚜发生量的数学关系模型,确定了马铃薯Y病毒病的流行以Logistic{ I=1/[1+a*EXP( -b*T)]}模型为最优模拟模型,再经逐步回归分析,确定如下最优田间预测模型为:Logit(Ⅰ)=2.058+0.355Logit( Io) -0.04SQRT( Ap),比较回归系数为0.967,比较回归绝对系数0.935.
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