我国天然橡胶产量波动的周期性分析——基于HP滤波的实证研究

摘要

利用HP滤波法测定1970～2010年间我国天然橡胶产量波动的周期,分析波动的周期性特征和成因,并分阶段研究了开剖面积、单产波动与产量波动的关系,揭示了我国天然橡胶生产的波动规律.%The cyclic fluctuations of natural rubber production from 1970 to 2010 in China were calculated by means of HP filter.The characteristics and causes of cyclic fluctuations and relationships between production fluctuations and tapping area as well as yield fluctuations were also analyzed.The fluctuation rules of natural rubber production in China were revealed.