基于状态转移法的冷却水系统动态可靠性分析

摘要

由于传统的系统可靠性建模与分析方法在描述时间、过程变量和操纵员等的动态影响时存在困难,而无法满足复杂动态系统可靠性分析的需要.对具有动态随机性故障的可修系统采用静态近似处理,经常会导致计算的可靠性指标与实际情况相差较大.针对动态分析问题,应用马尔科夫过程理论建立了系统中部件可靠性参数随时间变化的状态转移方程,根据冷却水系统的原理和运行特点建立了冷却水系统的数学计算模型,并运用算例对该方法进行了分析.分析结果表明,该模型可以合理地分析计算冷却水系统的不可用度随时间的变化.%Traditional system modeling and analysis method is usually used to describe the static logic relationship.Meanwhile, it cannot satisfy the need of reliability analysis for complex system in terms of dynamic factors, such as time, process variables and behaviors of operator.Static approximate method,dealing with the repairable system with dynamic stochastic failure, usually leads to quite different results from its actual conditions.Based on the Markov process theory, state-transition equations are established to describe the time-varying reliability parameters of system components.With numerical model of the cooling water system, a case study was also carried out.The results show that the Markov state-transition model is effective to carry out unavailability analysis of the cooling water system.