片帮破坏是深埋盐岩地下储气库主要破坏模式之一，为研究盐岩地下储气库片帮风险等级，基于改进的一次二阶矩法失效概率计算方法，依据已有的破坏准则确立盐岩片帮的功能函数，建立盐岩地下储气库片帮风险失效概率计算模型，通过ABAQUS的UVARM模块对该模型进行二次开发，并在江苏金坛盐岩地下储气库进行应用。通过对金坛储气库单腔低压多腔运营时一腔失压的片帮风险概率计算，结果表明，运营气压高于6 MPa时失效概率可达地下储气库安全要求，矿柱间距大于1.5倍洞径时某腔失压对其它储腔造成的风险很小，计算结果与金坛储气库实际情况相符，表明该方法具有一定的实际应用价值。%Slabbing failure is a major failure mode in deep salt rock underground gas storages. In order to research the risk level of the salt rock gas storage,a failure risk probability calculation method of the deep salt rock underground gas storage side falling was established based on the modified first-order second-moment method, according to the existing failure theory. Secondary development of the method was operated using ABAQUS platform in the part of UVARM,and the slabbing failure probability of the Jintan salt rock underground gas storage was calculated with this method. The failure probability under the low pressure operating conditions of a single storage was calculated,and multi-storage cavity failure probability caused by pressure loss of single cavern was also calculated. The results illustrate that,if the pressure of storage is higher than 6 MPa,failure probability would be less than the gas storage safety requirements. If the space of pillar is appropriate,individual cavern cavity loss pressure would cause little effect on the other cavern. The results are well in accordance with the practice of Jintan gas storage. It´s shown that this method has practical value in engineering application.
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