基于实物期权的中国风电发展政策评估

摘要

Based on the theory of real options, this paper establishes a policy benefit model that can be used to evaluate the development of wind power considering four uncertain factors: thermal power generating cost, wind power generating cost, carbon price, incentives and subsidies from the government. By setting different coefficients of subsidy, the paper analyzes its effects on the total de-cisional value and achieves the optimal investment timing under various situations. The research helps the government assess the projects of renewable resources, which may contain some uncertainties and make relevant policies.%考虑火电发电成本、风电发电成本、碳排放权价格及政府的鼓励与补贴4种不确定因素,基于实物期权理论从政府的视角,建立评估风电发展的决策价值模型.通过设定不同的政策补贴系数,分析政策补贴对总决策价值的影响,并给出各种情境下的最佳投资时机.