目的 深入探讨江苏省各县(市)2003～2009年伤寒、副伤寒疫情空间流行规律,根据地理信息及发病人数建立预测模型,为伤寒、副伤寒预防控制提供理论依据.方法 建立江苏省各县(市)2003～2009年伤寒、副伤寒疫情数据库,绘制历年疫情分布图,对发病人数进行趋势面分析、空间自相关分析,应用最小二乘法进行空间回归分析.结果 江苏省伤寒、副伤寒的发病人数总体上呈随机分布,但局部地区存在疫情的聚集和高发,其中苏州市城区、吴江市、无锡市城区每年疫情都有显著聚集性,为疫情高发区域；建立了江苏省伤寒、副伤寒疫情分布图和趋势面分析图,得出了伤寒、副伤寒疫情总体发病趋势下降,由北向南、由西向东递增的结论；以Lon(经度)、Lat(纬度)为自变量、各县(市)发病人数为因变量,建立了空间线性回归方程.结论 应根据江苏省伤寒、副伤寒发病空间分布相关特点及未来分布趋势,科学制定预防和控制疫情传播的措施.%Objective To deeply analyze the development of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in every county of Jiangsu province during the years 2003 to 2009. Try to forecast the future development of typhoid and paratyphoid fever based on the geographic information. Methods Research and collect the numbers of patients in Jiangsu province to establish the database for the geographic information system. Then set up the risk map of the disease. Use trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation a-nalysis to study the patients' numbers. Eventually, Ordinary Least Squares was used in the linear spatial regression. Results The results of the autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of the typhoid and paraty-phoid fever had clusters at some places. The results indicated that Suzhou, Wujiang and Wuxi were three locations of clusters with significantly high patients' numbers. The risk map clearly showed that the numbers of patients has decreased these years in Jiangsu province. Trend surface analysis map indicated that the disease was more severe in the south and east than in the north and west of Jiangsu province. In the linear spatial regression analysis, the longitude and latitude were designed as the independent variables, while the patients' numbers were dependent variables,the related regression equation was founded. Conclusion According to the feature of the disease's spatial distribution,along with the trend surface analysis,we should take effective measures to prevent and keep the prevalence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever under control.
展开▼
