排队论G/Ek/c模型及其在医院眼科专家门诊中的应用

摘要

Objective To introduce the principle and parameter estimation of queuing theory model G/Ek/c, and using it in hospital eye specialist treatment in order to provide some scientific suggestion for optimizing the allocation of human resources and shorting the time that patients wait. Methods Through collecting data from 390 patients who waited in a large one of the third Grade first-class hospitals and fitting the model G/ Ek/c,the paper studies for-the evaluation and projection of the queue status. Results There are 3 experts in this eye specialist treatment currently, system utilization rate is 98. 84% and mean waiting time for patients is 3. 54 hours. Assuming 4 experts are arranged, system utilization rate would be 82. 50% and mean waiting time for patients would be 0. 17 hours. Assuming 5 experts are arranged, mean waiting time would be 0. 04 hours and system utilization rate would be only 66. 71%. Conclusion Congestion is very serious in this eye specialist treatment and it can be greatly improved only by adding one expert. Utilizing the queuing theory model G/Ek/c, it can be helpful to evaluate and forecast on the configuration of personnel in hospital eye specialist treatment and provide scientific suggestion for the realization of the full use of the limited resources in hospital.%目的 介绍排队论G/ Ek/c模型的原理与参数估计,并应用于医院眼科专家门诊,以期为优化人力资源配置,缩短病人的排队等候时间提供科学的参考依据.方法 收集武汉市某大型三甲医院眼科专家门诊390位就诊患者的排队数据并拟合G/ Ek/c模型,对排队状态进行评价和预测.结果 该专家门诊目前按3名专家接诊,系统利用率为98.84％,病人的平均排队等待时间为3.54小时；如果安排4名专家接诊,则系统利用率为82.50％,病人平均排队等待时间为0.17小时；如果安排5名专家接诊,则病人平均排队等待时间为0.04小时,但系统利用率仅为66.71％.结论 该眼科专家门诊目前拥挤现象很严重,只需增加1名接诊专家即可极大地改善拥挤状况.利用排队论G/Ek/c模型可以对医院眼科专家门诊的人力资源配置进行测评,为充分利用医院的有限人力资源提供了科学的决策依据.