枣庄市是山东省地质环境脆弱、地质灾害多发地区之一,近十几年来,采空塌陷、岩溶塌陷、崩塌、地裂缝等灾害频繁发生,人们的生存环境进一步恶化,成为经济社会进一步发展的主要制约因素之一.论文根据多年的研究成果,通过选取评判指标建立模糊数学评判模型对枣庄市地质灾害现状及发展趋势进行评判,并以地质灾害发育涉及的区域按照地质灾害类型及主要地质灾害发育程度进行评判分区.评判指标选取基本符合枣庄地质灾害现状实际,所建立的评判模型能够反映枣庄市地质灾害现状及发展趋势.%Zaozhuang is one of the places in Shandong province with vulnerable land and frequent geological hazards. In the past decade, excavation collapse, karst collapse, avalarche, ground fissure and other hazards frequently occurred. The living environment deteriorated, which has become a negative impact on the local economic development. Based on years of research, the paper used evaluation indexes to establish a fuzzy mathematics model to assess the current situation and development of the geological hazards in Zaozhuang, and provided a grading of the disaster-concerning areas according to the geo-hazard types and their development degree. The selected evaluation indexes basically accord with the current situation in Zaozhuang, and the established evaluation models can reflect the current geo-hazard and development situation in Zaozhuang.
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