大气环境约束下的中国煤炭消费总量控制研究

摘要

煤炭消费过程中排放的大气污染物已成为我国大气污染的重要来源。本文采用WRF-CAMx空气质量模型定量分析了煤炭消费-污染物排放-空气质量之间的影响关系，基于情景分析方法，研究了2020年、2030年空气质量改善需求对地区大气污染物排放总量与煤炭消费总量的约束作用。在此基础上，结合重点地区行业发展与能源供需等因素，提出各省煤炭消费总量控制目标与控煤对策建议。研究结果表明，要实现2020年、2030年空气质量改善阶段性目标，全国煤炭消费总量应分别控制在40.8亿吨和37.7亿吨左右，京津冀鲁豫等11个重点省份2020年煤炭消费量应控制在15.8亿吨、2030年控制在13.1亿吨，全国煤炭清洁化利用水平需要在当前基础上大幅度提升。%Air pollutants emissions from coal consumption have become important sources of air pollution in China. In this paper, the quantitative relationship among coal consumption, air pollutants emissions and air quality has been studied by applying WRF-CAMx model. The constraints of air quality improvements on the air pollutants emissions and coal consumption have been investigated. The regional coal comsumption control targets in 2020 and 2030 under the air quality constraints have been proposed, considering the requirements of industry development and energy supply in key regions based on scenarios studies.The results indicated that to achieve the air quality improvement target, the total coal consumption of China should be controlled within 4.08 billion tons in 2020 and 3.77 billion tons in 2030. The total coal consumption in the 11 key provinces, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, etc., should be controlled within 1.58 billion tons in 2020 and 1.31 billion tons in 2030. The coal clean utilization should be widely promoted.