安徽省冬小麦品种生态气候适宜性分析和精细化区划

摘要

利用安徽省78个气象站1971 - 2000年冬小麦生长阶段气象资料和地理信息,选取影响冬小麦品种分布和生长的主要气象因子建立区划指标,采用多元回归模型和GIS空间内插技术对指标要素栅格化,并通过温度和水分两级指标,形成千米网格的安徽省冬小麦品种生态气候适宜性精细化区划图,用安徽省耕地数据掩膜(mask)得到相应耕地意义的区划分布图,并进行分区评述.结果表明,以气温和降水为指标,可将安徽省冬小麦品种的生态气候适宜性划分为5大区11个亚区,分区结果能反映气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦生态气候适宜性的分布特点以及各区域温度适宜性和水分适宜性的差异.因冬季气温的南北差异,安徽省适宜种植的冬小麦品种自北向南冬性程度降低.冬小麦生产中的主要问题是水分失衡,北部水分不足,南部过多,制约了稳产高产.根据区划结果,应增强北部冬小麦主产区的抗旱能力,适当扩大沿淮和江淮丘陵北部地区半冬性品种种植面积,尽量压缩南部地区冬小麦种植面积,以全面提高安徽省冬小麦生产水平.%Based on the meteorological data during the growing season of winter wheat in 78 weather stations in 1971 -2000 and geographical information of Anhui province, the different eco-climate suitable planting area of winter wheat varieties were analyzed and divided. The zoning index system was constructed by selecting main meteorological factors affecting the distribution and growth of winter wheat varieties. The digital maps of the zoning factors were formed by applying regression analysis combined with spatial grid interpolation. By two levels indices of the temperature factor and precipitation ones, the distributioti maps of the eco-climate suitable planting areas of winter wheat with the scale of kilometer per grid were formed, and then covered with farmland digital mask, the zoning map of winter wheat with farmland meaning in Anhui province was finally established. The results showed that the eco-climate suitability of winter wheat could divide into five regions and 11 sub-regions, which well reflects the distribution characteristics of the eco-climate suitability on winter wheat varieties and difference in temperature suitability and precipitation ones for each region. The winter hardiness degree of the winter wheat varieties weakened from the northern area to the southern area because the difference of winter temperature among northern and southern areas. The main problem of winter wheat production in Anhui province is water imbalances. Water is deficient in the northern area, while too much in the southern area, so the stable and high crop yield were restricted. According to the zoning result the measures should be taken to increase the ability of drought resistance in the northern areas of winter wheat production area, the planting area of winter wheat with semi winter varieties in the area along the Huaihe river and northern of the Jianghuai hill should be extended, and planting area of winter wheat in the southern area of Anhui province was suggested to reduced so as to improve the winter wheat planting level.