The prediction model for rice planthopper occurrence period and occurrence extent was established by analyzing the main meteorological factors, based on monitoring data of the 2nd generation of rice planthopper from 1991 to 2010 and relative meteorological data in Huazhou city, Guangdong province. The results showed that there was an extreme significant negative correlation (P <0. 01)between the adult beginning peak period of the 2" generation rice planthopper and the average lowest temperature in February and the average highest temperature from late March to early April, and there was an extreme significant positive correlation (P < 0. 01) with relative humidity of March. There was an extreme significant negative correlation (P <0. 01) between the nymphl peak period and the average temperature from February to March and the average temperature from late March to early April. There was an extreme significant correlation(P <0. 01) between the occurrence extent and the average highest temperature from mid to late February, the average temperature from mid to late October and the sunshine hours in mid December last year. There was an extreme significant positive correlation (P <0. 01) between the attacked rice area and the average temperature of last October, and an extreme significant negative correlation (P <0. 01) with rainy days in last mid September and the humidity and temperature in mid March. Therefore, the meteorological predication model was proved to be used for predicting local rice planthopper occurrence.%利用广东省化州市1991-2010年2代稻飞虱发生情况监测资料和相应的气象资料,通过对稻飞虱发生期、发生程度与主要气象因子进行相关分析,建立适合当地的稻飞虱发生期、发生程度预测模型.结果表明,2代稻飞虱成虫始盛期与2月平均最低气温和3月下旬-4月上旬平均最高气温呈极显著负相关(P＜0.01),与3月空气相对湿度呈极显著正相关(P＜0.01)；若虫高峰期与2-3月平均气温和3月下旬-4月上旬平均气温呈极显著负相关(P＜0.01)；发生程度与当年2月中旬-下旬平均最高气温、上年10月中旬-下旬平均气温和12月中旬日照时数呈极显著(P＜0.01)和显著正相关(P＜0.05)；发生面积与上年10月平均气温呈极显著正相关(P＜0.01),与上年9月中旬降水日数和当年3月中旬温湿比呈极显著负相关(P＜0.01).在此基础上,建立了2代稻飞虱成虫始盛期、若虫高峰期、发生程度及发生面积4个气象预测模型.对以上气象预测模型进行模拟和预报结果表明,其准确性较高,可以为该区稻飞虱预测预报服务.
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