根据人工气候箱内不同温度条件下2次枸杞蚜虫饲养试验，确定枸杞蚜虫发育起始温度，建立蚜虫发育速率与温度的关系方程，以5.0℃作为枸杞蚜虫发育的起点温度，利用该方程对1991－2012年宁夏枸杞蚜虫繁衍动态和全年可繁殖世代数进行推算。根据2006－2008年田间蚜虫调查的虫口密度与气象因子建立的统计关系，确定枸杞蚜虫发生程度的气象指标和为害等级预报模型，并用2012年中宁田间调查情况进行验证。结果表明，宁夏枸杞蚜虫平均起始发生期为3月27日，终止时间为10月下旬，全年可繁殖21~25代，为害高峰时段为第3~12代，干旱、晴天条件下枸杞蚜虫更易发展，多雨、高湿环境抑制枸杞蚜虫的发展。预报模型回代准确率88.2％，异地检验准确率100％，效果良好，说明模型和气象指标可用于监测、预测枸杞蚜虫的繁殖世代数和为害的气象等级。%The initial growth temperature of aphis sp. was defined according to 2 feeding experiments under different temperature treatments in the HGP￣280H type climatic cabinet,the equation between growth rate of aphis sp. and temperature was established based on the initial growth temperature. The breeding date of each generation and annual total generations from 1991 to 2012 were estimated by using the equation,taking 5. 0℃ as aphis sp. initial growth threshold temperature. The meteorological indicators and prediction model on aphis sp. hazard grades were determined, according to the statistic relationship between population density and its meteorological factors from 2006 to 2008,and verified by using investigated data in Zhongning in 2012. The result showed that the average initial occurring date of aphis sp. was on March 27 and ending date was in later of October. Aphis sp. could breeding 21￣23 generations each year, of which 3￣12 generations was serious damaged. Drying and sunshine was benefit to them growth and development,and rainy and high humidity inhibited them development. The accuracy of the model and meteorological indicators was 88. 2% and the accuracy of off￣site observed data was 100% . Those models and meteorological indexes were suitable for monitoring aphis sp. growth state and forecasting hazard grades.
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